We’ve been scouting this blockbuster from the moment the draw was announced. World No. 1 Novak Djokovic and nine-time French Open winner Rafael Nadal will go head-to-head Wednesday in the quarterfinals. What are the keys for the players? ESPN analysts Patrick McEnroe and Darren Cahill break it down.
McEnroe: Why Djokovic will win | Cahill: Why Nadal will win
Patrick McEnroe: The case for Novak Djokovic
1. Logic
When Djokovic takes to Court Philippe Wednesday afternoon, he will be the favorite to unseat Nadal. That’s what the oddsmakers say. But maybe not in his own mind. Hard to argue with logic. And the logic is simple. Nadal has lost only one match in best-of-five sets on his beloved clay surface.
This time, I believe Djokovic will get it done. Why? Well, logic, of course. He’s coming into this match on an absolute tear, dominating all of the major events in men’s tennis going back to last year. He routed Nadal on clay in Monte Carlo and has the requisite ground game, fitness and consistent offense to finally break down Nadal’s Roland Garros defense.
2. Service game
Djokovic has to hit his spots on his serve and open up Nadal’s backhand corner by going after his stronger forehand side early in the rallies. He is capable of keeping Nadal pinned well behind the baseline more often than not. If he does this, I believe Djokovic will wear him down. Yes, I said it — he can wear down Nadal.
3. The long haul
Djokovic cannot simply try to hit his way through Nadal. He must outmaneuver him. And he must let him know early in the match that he is not afraid of going the distance. Nadal has owned Djokovic on this court simply because he has always believed that he can win a battle of attrition. That changes on Wednesday. Nadal will be the one gasping for air.
Djokovic will finally solve the code at Roland Garros. And then he will be a step closer to winning the one major that has eluded him.
Darren Cahill: The case for Rafael Nadal
1. Belief
“You can’t connect the dots looking forward. You can only connect the dots looking backwards.”
We can plan for the future and what lies in front of us, but the reality is that we can’t ultimately control what is going to happen. We prepare the best we can. We give it our best shot. Always believe we can make it happen and keep fighting.
Things really only make sense to us once they have happened. That’s how we learn and improve every day.
These are words Nadal has lived by throughout his career, and they’ve served him well.
Nadal is 70-1 and has nine titles in 10 years at Roland Garros. He is also 93-1 in best-of-five-set matches on clay in his career.
These are numbers that will stand alone in the record books for a very long time, if not forever. They don’t come without lessons learned and confidence drawn. Nadal may be listed at 6-foot-1, but he stands a few inches taller on the terre battue. While Djokovic has been the standout player all year, belief in Paris is reserved for one man.
2. The Nadal forehand
As Brad Gilbert would say: “The fearhand has to rise up.” Nadal can protect the rest of his game if things are not firing on all cylinders, but he can’t protect the forehand against Djokovic if he’s not feeling it. It’s the shot that wounds Nadal’s opponents a dozen different ways, and on clay it’s intensified. During five sets, his forehand is lethal.
Djokovic handles the Nadal cross-court forehand better than anyone in the game. His pocket on the backhand side is large and it’s tough to get the ball out of Djokovic’s strike zone because he plays close to the baseline. Because he is lightning-fast, he can redirect the ball using Nadal’s pace. Djokovic is also one of the few players who hurts Nadal with his thumping backhand cross-court. It backs Nadal up and opens plenty of court space for Djokovic to launch his attack.
The down-the-line forehand early in the point, and the inside-out forehand will be key for Nadal. Both shots stretch Djokovic to his forehand side and can turn the tide in any rally — against anyone. If Nadal can execute these two shots and make progress in the neutral rallies, it will give him confidence to wear down Djokovic. Nadal believes his edge lies in his attempt to get to Djokovic’s legs.
3. The return of serve
Lleyton Hewitt’s first comment after playing a young Djokovic many years ago was: “Everyone is underrating this guy’s serve. It’s heavy, well directed and tough to read.” Nadal’s return game has been patchy this year, although he has found his rhythm again in Paris. Nadal will be hoping to stay neutral on his returns and will try to back Djokovic up a little. Nadal likes to move back when returning on clay to buy some time, especially on second-serve returns. He’s looking to hit more forehands that’ll give the ball hang time, but anything dropped short will be punished by Djokovic. Getting involved in Djokovic’s service games will be key, as the pressure will mount if he is holding serve easily. Finding a return position that Nadal is comfortable with, and putting plenty of neutral balls back in play, is a must.
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