Luck or skill: How much is success in business down to chance?

Guy Kawasaki, former marketing guru for Apple and Google, believes a good idea is 10% hard work and implementation, and 90% luck. But are those breakthrough moments in every business success story really down to the roll of a dice?

Dean Jobling’s entrepreneurial journey appears to be, in every sense, a case of right place, right time. Following a divorce, he sold his family glass business at a half decent profit and began looking for a new beginning. He didn’t have to wait long, however, before the opportunity presented itself in an unlikely place – a Newcastle United football match.

He struck up a conversation with a fan who was an expert on growing biofuel crops in Senegal. Two weeks later, he was on a plane to West Africa and promptly bought 2,000 hectares of land in St Louis, near the capital Dakar. But in a country which imports the majority of its food because of poor irrigation, he quickly realised the real business potential was in investing in technologies and infrastructure, such as canals, to allow local farmers to grow and sell their own agricultural produce – from rice and sweet potatoes to squash and asparagus.

Jobling’s company, Suno Agro, now employs 26 people and, with the government’s ambitious target of making the country rice self-sufficient by 2017 and onion imports already banned, business looks set to boom. He is now seeking to raise £2m in the form of a bond and anticipates a gross return of 12% for investors.

He admits much of the circumstances which led to his business’s success are down to fortuitous circumstances. But as an entrepreneur it’s about spotting these opportunities when they present themselves and grabbing them with both hands.

“You need the drive to succeed,” he explains. “To run a business in the UK is hard enough, but to run a business in West Africa is even tougher. If you have the drive and determination though, you can do it.”

It was that same passion for a great idea that drove Anna Richey to launch a company selling ready-separated egg whites in Britain. Richey had developed a taste for the product while in the US, where it was already hugely popular with consumers. She realised there was a gap in the market and started Two Chicks with her friend Alla Ouvarova.

Their breakthrough moment was getting listed by London department store Selfridges. Their product is now stocked in supermarkets across the country, including Tesco, Asda and Waitrose. It has even been endorsed by TV cook Nigella Lawson and featured on MasterChef Live and Saturday Kitchen.

Richey and Ouvarova’s belief in the product combined with the current zeitgeist for low carb, high protein diets meant the stars were certainly aligned in their favour. Luck, however, can be given a helping hand by adopting the right business attitude.

“We came with a product at the right time – there was interest in it and no one else was doing it. You could call that luck,” admits Richey. “It was easier for us because there was no other egg whites on the retail market. But you always want to have a differentiating factor. How are you different and why should a consumer choose your product over a competitor’s? It’s about knowing your selling point.”

Perseverance is also key to success, she adds. The harder you work, the luckier you get.

She explains: “I am not saying that we have done so much more work than anybody else, but we didn’t give up until we succeeded. I would have the supermarkets on redial and call them 30 times a day. It was like that. You have got to have that perseverance.”

Richard Dodgson agrees. He believes so strongly there’s no such thing as luck, he has the motto pinned on his fridge. The founder and creative director of events company Timebased did have impeccable timing, however, when he cold called Conde Nast in the late 1990s. Events director Michelle Russell had recently been appointed to take charge of the first GQ Men of the Year awards. She took a chance on the plucky entrepreneur, gave him a budget and Dodgson has run the ceremony every year since.

The deal saw Timebased’s success skyrocket, with clients from Selfridges and Emporio Armani to pop star Sting using the company to organise their events. A recent booking in Delhi has now seen the enterprise go global.

While lady luck may have played her part at the beginning, he insists the company’s long-term success and ability to retain important clients is about trust, exceeding expectations and building strong relationships. He adds it is also about making sure the people you work with feel they are your equal partner rather than simply a client.

“We have always had an objective, a vision and a plan and are quite reactive to it,” Dodgson explains. “The luck element is therefore eliminated because we put the right team together to deliver that objective. You’ve got to be creative, forward thinking and open to new ideas.”

Equally, Dodgson believes misfortune does not really exist in business. Every bump in the road, every spell of bad luck, should be seen as an opportunity to learn and progress. How you rise to that challenge will determine your chances of success.

Resilience when things are not necessarily going to plan is therefore vital for any small business owner. You will get a lot of knockbacks, says Laurence Shaw, CEO of big data company Anomaly42, but if you can keep going, you will start to see the success you have been striving for.

There are a couple of things, he says, that you’ll need to help you achieve your goals. A network of people who can help you influence the account that you are in is one. Having senior people in other organisations – investors, influencers – who can help and advise is useful for positioning yourself for a big break.

The next thing you need, Shaw adds, is interest from the press. It’s vital you gain a media presence, he says. “The whole question of credibility then changes because someone has read about you and you are being talked about. That’s important because it helps you get over those early sales.”

Whether it’s Facebook or Lady Gaga, the myth about overnight success is that it happens instantly, by chance and with little or no effort. That pivotal breakthrough moment for most entrepreneurs is not kismet or divine will, but the culmination of years of planning and hard work. As Benjamin Franklin said: “Diligence is the mother of good luck.”

Read more stories like this:

Entrepreneurs who fight for success
How did you come up with your small business breakthrough moment?

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