Ian Brindle’s horse-by-horse guide to the Investec Derby at Epsom on Saturday.

Dawn Approach: Looks hard to oppose in Classic double bid

Battle Of Marengo

Looks on paper at least to be the number one hope of Ballydoyle. Winner of five races on the bounce and proved much too good for his rivals in the Derrinstown Stud Derby trial at Leopardstown beating Loch Garman (An Italian Group 1 winner) by an easy one-and-three-quaerter lengths. An obvious question as to whether he’ll stay the trip given his pedigree (out of a Giant’s Causeway dam) but there’s only one way to find out!

Chopin

Supplemented for the Derby by connections at a sizeable premium and very much a dark horse in all senses of the term. Won by a wide margin winner on soft at Frankfurt as a juvenile, and confirmed he had trained on with a rout in Group 3 company at Krefeld (though the second has been beaten in Group 2 company since). Needs to have improved but on the positive, his pedigree and all evidence on the racecourse suggests he should.

Dawn Approach

Hard not to disagree with the reasons as to why he’s a hot favourite based on what he’s shown so far. Bids to follow in the hoofprints of his father – a winner of the race in 2008 and of fellow Irish raiders, Sea The Stars and Camelot in completing the Derby and 2,000 Guineas double. He is yet to race over this trip in public but given the professional manner in which he has undertaken his engagements so far (in addition to the fact that he won a Dewhurst at Newmarket – (a fair milestone for Derby aspirants) – he ticks many of the right boxes.

Festive Cheer

Dundalk maiden winner who is very lightly raced – visiting the racecourse just three times during his career. A fair third over a shorter trip in a Group 2 at Longchamp in May – picking up well for pressure having looked briefly outpaced. No doubting that this is a leap in grade but on that form, he is a far from a forlorn hope of running into the frame .

First Cornerstone

Always held in high regard by connections and they deserve credit for taking on the big boys at Epsom. Probably needed the run at the Curragh in the Irish 2,000 Guineas after a sizeable absence but a big ask for him to realise so much improvement in the interim and it’s not hard to look elsewhere.

Flying The Flag

One of a number of the now traditional O’Brien battalion and doesn’t lack for experience having campaigned in two Classics already. Well beaten having been held up in the early stages though has raced previously in a front-running role in the Vincent O’Brien Stakes and it appears likely that he might be utilised in a similar role here.

Galileo Rock

A half-brother to Saddler’s Rock and Athenian so no doubting that stamina is the strong suit in his pedigree. Won his maiden at Leopardstown on soft ground and was ahead of Libertarian when they met in the Sandown Derby trial in April. On a literal interpretation of that line of form he shouldn’t really be the odds that the bookmakers are currently offering about him.

Libertarian

Shock winner of what was largely thought to be a modest renewal of the Dante Stakes at York. (Trading Leather behind) but Karl Burke very bullish about his prospects of staying the extra distance. Half-brother to Prince Siegfried (stayed 1m2f with more precocious sire) so every reason to believe he’ll stay. Nine Dante winners have gone on to win the Derby – the latest being Authorised in 2007.

Magician

Seemed to be always more than a “definite possible” for Epsom Downs having bagged the Irish 2,000 Guineas last weekend and if turning up – he should be treated with the utmost respect. Didn’t seem to be phased by that step down in trip having won the Dee Stakes – although that trial has a patchy conversion rate of winners with Kris Kin (who started off as an outsider on the Roodeye) the last to make the transition successfully back in 2003.

Mars

Subsequent events have somewhat sunk him in the pecking order at Ballydoyle having headed into winter quarters as one of the market leaders for the race. Has only had two starts – winning his debut on the Polytrack at Dundalk (his sole run as a juvenile) before heading directly for the 2,000 Guineas. Was seen putting in his best work at the end of the race so in many respects it presented punters with more questions than answers ahead of this assignment and as such, he cannot be ruled out of a big run on Saturday.

Mirsaale

Winner of the Epsom Derby trial so there will be no surprises for him around this esoteric circuit. f The form of that race (bar fifth placed Hoarding winning a Listed event at Newmarket) has been let down badly by the major protagonists so realistically, he’s going to need to have found plenty of improvement coming into this much tougher race. Demonstrated plenty of grit and determination in his races but that might not be enough at this level.

Ocean Applause

A winner of 0 from 16 so far and tailed off in the Derby trial behind Mirsaale.

Ocovango

Trainer knows how to win this race (did so with Pour Moi in 2011) and he took advantage of the Breakfast With The Stars day to gain some experience of the course. Began his racing career fairly late as a juvenile (made a winning debut in November 2012) and brings a flawless record to the course having obliged in Listed and then Group 2 company in his Native France. His sire, Monsun, produced a Coronation Cup winner in Shirocco, so plenty of positives in his favour.

Ruler of the World

Unraced as a juvenile though made up for lost time with victory in a Curragh maiden followed by a Group 3 success in the Chester Vase. Looks stoutly put together and while I’d personally put him forward as being more of a Leger type – he’s entitled to take his chance and would be well served by a decent gallop in front.

Trading Leather

Ran a corker to be second in the Dante Stakes but well held in the Irish 2,000 Guineas having set off to make all at a ferocious pace. Clearly isn’t afraid of showing courage in a battle but appears a second string to his more illustrious stable mate.

Summary

Short-priced favourites have done well at Epsom in recent years with the market confidence behind Camelot and Authorised proving to be entirely warranted.

It’s no gimme that DAWN APPROACH will stay 12 furlongs but if actions speak louder than words – you get the feeling that the majority of the trainers feel that he will and the horse certainly carries himself in the manner of a champion.

Magician is in good heart and barely had a race in the Irish Guineas. We don’t know whether he’ll turn up so for a sporting interest, don’t rule out the idea of Festive Cheer from running into the places at big odds.

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