Budget 2012: Will stamp duty diminish the UK housing market?

“The UK already imposes the highest property taxes in the world, as a
proportion of GDP, with the top end of the market bearing the biggest
burden,” complains Nicholas Leeming, from online property firm Zoopla.co.uk.
“The introduction of this penal seven per cent stamp duty rate is flawed and
misguided, in our view.”

What’s more, it could encourage foreign buyers to start looking for other
locations in which to invest, reports Peter Rollings, chief executive
officer of agents Marsh and Parsons.

“This policy will disproportionately target London, where house prices are in
a league of their own,” he says. “It risks killing the goose that lays the
golden egg.”

However, at the same time as delivering a sharp bite to the hand that feeds,
the increase in stamp duty will, its critics claim, be toothless.

“Our research suggests £1.5 billion is an overly optimistic estimate of the
revenue the scheme will raise,” says Richard Sexton, director of e.surv
chartered surveyors.

Other experts believe that increased stamp duty will prove an inconvenience
for wealthy buyers, rather than a serious repellent.

“I doubt the seven per cent stamp duty will put off a serious buyer,” says
James Wyatt, managing director of Surrey-based agent Barton Wyatt. He
frequently sells £8 million houses to foreign clients, both on the Wentworth
Estate and in the St George’s Hill area of Weybridge (where the dwindling
number of UK residents includes Sir Cliff Richard).

Wyatt’s view is echoed by Louise Vaughan, London head of Prospect Property
Search. “Wealthy Russians are buying in London because they’re terrified
Putin is going to do some kind of property grab. They know we’ve got strong
laws that can protect them,” she says. “They’re not going to be scared off
by a two per cent increase in stamp duty.”

Indeed, with political upheaval unsettling many a Middle Eastern investor, the
experience of recent years has been that overseas buyers aren’t put off by
mere price.

“The prime London market has absorbed a 42 per cent price rise since 2009, so
we think it will absorb the stamp duty increase,” says Liam Bailey, head of
residential research at Knight Frank. “That said, higher stamp duty means
there will be a greater incentive to improve properties rather than move up
the ladder. Also, some wealthy buyers may decide to save £59,000 in stamp
duty by buying a £1.9 million house in the country, rather than a £2.2
million property in London.”

Even so, they may still be hit by the Budget, as renovations on listed
buildings are no longer VAT exempt. It is a change that will affect many
less wealthy householders, too. “Suddenly adding 20 per cent to the cost of
repairs and alterations is going to wreck a lot of people’s plans,” says
Kate Pugh, chief executive of the Heritage Alliance. “There is going to be a
huge outcry over this.”

Furthermore, George Osborne has introduced a 15 per cent stamp duty for those
who buy through offshore companies. This will close a tax loophole. Nice
idea, is the general response, but implementing it is going to be the hard
part.

“Policing the clampdown will be difficult, and some transactions may slip
through the net,” says Nicholas Leeming, of Zoopla.co.uk.

“One option may be to force agents to declare sales prices,” suggests Edoardo
Mapelli Mozzi, director of London search agent Banda Property. “But that
would encourage off-market deals.”

Lucian Cook, director of residential research at Savills agrees: “For all the
talk of eliminating stamp duty evasion, this move will provide an even
stronger incentive to property lawyers to dream up new, perfectly legal
avoidance schemes.”

So the higher rate of stamp duty will raise some extra revenue from the
world’s super-rich. But their inventive ways to minimise their tax
liabilities may be difficult to curtail.