View full sizeHome sales rose in Ohio and across the country last month, showing hints of housing recovery at the end of a rough year.
CLEVELAND, Ohio — The housing market shrugged off winter gloom last month, according to several reports released Wednesday.
But the cheery data was tempered as previous sales reports were revised, revealing that the country’s housing slump was even worse than it seemed.
From 2007 through 2010, sales — and the number of homes listed for sale — were 14.3 percent lower than previously reported, the National Association of Realtors said.
“It made a terrible housing correction look even worse,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist with Moody’s Analytics.
The revisions occurred because the Realtors group adjusted its formula for calculating home sales. The changes distracted from last month’s numbers, which showed glimmers of hope at the end of a terrible year.
Across Ohio, sales of new and existing homes rose for the fifth straight month. Nationwide, sales of previously owned homes hit a 10-month peak.
In Northeast Ohio, sales of new and previously owned houses were up 16.4 percent from November 2010. Condo sales were up 4.5 percent, according to data for 15 counties compiled by the Northern Ohio Regional Multiple Listing Service. Not surprisingly, sales dipped from October as the housing market headed into a traditionally slow season.
“In all corners of Ohio, we’ve experienced a significant uptick in activity since midyear,” Meg Hudson, president of the Ohio Association of Realtors, said in a written statement.
Based on 11 months of data, Ohio home sales should end the year near 2010 levels. National sales of existing homes also look likely to mirror last year’s performance. But 2011 will mark a record low for new home sales, home-building permits and new construction starts.
“The numbers have been getting a little bit better over the last few months, but they’re still very low by historical standards,” said Patrick Newport, an economist with research firm IHS Global Insight. “This is the worst year ever for the single-family market.”
The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes were up 12.2 percent last month from November 2010. Sales rose 4 percent from October, according to data adjusted for seasonal buying patterns.
The Realtors revised housing reports stretching back several years, to account for disparities between real estate data sources and changes in housing research by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The adjustments made a battered market look even worse. For example, 4.2 million existing homes changed hands last year – reduced from 4.9 million.
The trade group attributed the data problems to changes in traditional sales patterns during the housing slump. One key factor: Fewer people are independently listing their homes for sale.
The Realtors were assuming that for-sale-by-owner transactions represented 16 percent of sales, a number that dates back to 2000. Yet by 2010, for-sale-by-owner transactions fell to 9 percent. So the Realtors were overestimating the number of deals.
Some sales were counted twice, as real estate listing services overlapped. And new homes occasionally got mixed up in the existing-home-sales data.
A spokesman said the revisions don’t affect the broader trends. The adjustments will, however, lead to slight drops in historic gross domestic product numbers, which reflect the value of goods and services – including real estate agents’ commissions.
The Realtors have crafted a new method for measuring home sales, which will allow them to update reports annually rather than relying on Census data released every 10 years.
“This is all really pretty meaningless to home buyers and sellers,” said Walter Molony, a spokesman for the Realtors. “What really matters is the local market data.”
In November, the national median – or middle – sale price for an existing home was $164,200, down 3.5 percent from a year before. Prices also fell in Ohio, where real estate groups report averages instead of medians.
Northeast Ohio houses fetched an average of $115,845 – down 9.6 percent from a year before. Condos sold at an average price of $112,200, down 12.7 percent.
Economists expect house prices to fall another 3 percent to 10 percent before hitting bottom in mid-2012.
Open all references in tabs: [1 – 3]