Could the San Juan capistrano market for homes be on teh rebound?

Every two weeks, Steve Thomas of ReportsOnHousing.com publishes a study of the supply of local homes for sale. The latest report — as of December 8 — details about San Juan shows some strength …

• 106 residences listed in brokers’ MLS system with 53 new deals opening in the past 30 days.
• By Thomas’s math, this community has a “market time” (months in would take to sell all inventory at current pace of new escrows) of 2.00 months vs. 2.26 months found two weeks earlier vs. 3.53 months seen a year earlier. Countywide, latest market time was 3.44 months vs. 4.42 months a year ago.
• So, homes in this community sell — in theory — in 42% less time than the countywide pace.
• Homes for sale in San Juan represent 1.2% of Orange County inventory — and 1.0% of all the distressed homes listed for sale in Orange County. New escrows here are 2.0% of all Orange County’s new pending sales.

DataQuick, on the other hand, tracks actual closed sales. By this math, San Juan Capistrano looked sluggish in November while the countywide market was feeling an autumnal chill — such as the lowest selling prices in 31 months and the 4th slowest-selling November since 1988.

For calendar month November — latest DataQuick stats …

• 33 San Juan Capistrano residences sold vs. 42 deals closed in the matching period a year ago — a 21.4% decline over the past 12 months.
• Countywide sales increased 2% in the same period.
• $254,000 was the San Juan Capistrano median selling price. That is down 38% in the year.
• Countywide median selling price of $400,000 was down 8.0% in the year.
• San Juan Capistrano home sales were 1.4% of total Orange County sales in the period vs. 1.9% a year ago.

One bid force in teh market is distressed properties for sale — either foreclosures being resold or short sales, where sellers owe more than the home’s value.

Of the homes listed for sale San Juan Capistrano as of Dec. 8, 32 were either foreclosures being resold or short sales, where sellers owe more than the home’s value. So distressed properties were 30.2% of supply of homes for sale vs. 37.7% countywide.

Cities with Orange County’s highest level of distressed properties among their listings? Portola Hills was tops — 73.3% — followed by Rancho Santa Margarita at 68.8% of listings and Ladera Ranch at 64.9% of listings.

Fewest? Seal Beach was tops — 4.5% — followed by Corona Del Mar at 5.0% of listings and Laguna Woods at 8.8% of listings.

For more real estate news, CLICK HERE! For ZIP-by-ZIP homebuying trends, CLICK HERE! And for the latest housing foibles of Real Housewives of Orange County cast, CLICK HERE!

Need a slice of good news on your cell? Text OCRGOOD to 56654 and we’ll text you a dash of positivity daily!