Keegan Bradley has knocked 2011 stiff, lacking only top consistency.
(Getty Images)
ORLANDO, Fla. — When you live in Florida, which is the case with those who run the PGA Tour as well as many of the blokes who play the circuit for a living, misfires with ballots and elections are thicker than mosquitoes in June.
You might recall that last month, the tour had to hold off on mailing its Player of the Year ballots because somebody forgot that the HSBC Champions event in China was a semi-official event, so shipping off the polls before the tournament, as originally planned, would have been the equivalent of a hanging chad.
Well, it’s been a week since the ballots were formally shipped to tour members for their amusin’ perusing, so we’re here to provide some illumination and clarity to a crowded picture and clouded process.
What’s most important, a win at a major, multiple wins, FedEx Cup points, earnings or stroke average? People have argued those issues all season, since seven different players finished with two victories and exactly zero managed three wins. But what about the quality of the victories or a player’s mark against every player in the field, compiled over the entire season?
The tour listed five nominees on the ballot for the Jack Nicklaus Award, curiously omitting three guys who tied for the tour-high in wins with two. Included was a brief thumbnail of the nominees’ seasonal highlights for voters to digest. Well, the thumbnails don’t really scratch the surface.
So, for both fans and confused players alike, as this week’s New World Order list we’ve added some different metrics, gauges and figures to clarify who had the best season, both by traditional measures and some esoteric, off-the-wall data.
Two seldom-cited statistics are the thrust of the formula: A comparison of head-to-head play versus other ranked players for the season, courtesy of Golfweek magazine’s Sagarin computer, and a listing of the number of top-200 players competing in the field in the tournaments won by each nominee.
One provides better resolution with regard to the quality of the field in the victories, while the second gives a seasonal gauge of who played the best against their peers all season.
Let’s see how things like the money list and scoring average — worthy metrics, otherwise — compare with the new categories for probative value. As with the PGA Tour ballot, nominees are listed alphabetically.
Keegan Bradley
Tour bio on ballot: Entered 29 events during 2011, featuring victories at the Byron Nelson Championship and the PGA Championship. Had four top-10 finishes. Ranked 20th in FedEx Cup points and 13th in earnings with $3,758,600.
Number of top-200 players in wins: 124 at PGA Championship, 52 at Byron Nelson.
Seasonal head-to-head record against all peers: 2,099 wins, 1,351 losses, 159 ties (winning percentage of .604, which ranked 55th on tour.
Good stuff they omitted: Only American to win a major championship this year, and he did it in his first try at a Grand Slam event, as a PGA Tour rookie, no less.
Bad stuff they omitted: He missed a whopping 10 cuts.
Verdict: The PGA Championship had more players in the top 200 than any other global event this year, and winning majors is usually worth 2-3 regular victories on most weighting yardsticks. Will it be enough to put the rookie over the top? As far as weekly consistency, though, Bradley eventually lagged behind Donald and Simpson.
Luke Donald
Tour bio on ballot: Entered 19 U.S. events, featuring victories at Accenture Match Play Championship and Disney World. Led tour with 14 top-10 finishes, including a playoff loss at Hilton Head. Ranked third in FedEx Cup points list and first in earnings with $6,683,214, earning the Arnold Palmer Award. Earned Vardon Trophy for lowest adjusted scoring average.
Number of top-200 players in wins: 64 at Match Play, 41 at Disney Seasonal head-to-head record against all peers: 1,739 wins, 307 losses and 58 ties for a winning percentage of .840 percent, the second-best mark on tour behind Steve Stricker, who was not nominated. Good stuff they omitted: Had two more top 10s in seven fewer starts than did Webb Simpson, who ranked second in that category. He also won two events on the European Tour. Is ranked No. 1 in the world. Bad stuff they omitted: Bloody hell, he’s English! Like four others on this ballot, has never won a major. Verdict:He’s the best player, he had the best season, and he won the season finale in clutch fashion when he needed a victory to secure POY votes and the money title. What is left to discuss?
Bill Haas
Tour bio on ballot: Entered 27 events, featuring a victory at the Tour Championship that clinched the FedEx Cup bonus. Had seven top-10 finishes, including playoff losses at Bob Hope and Greenbrier classics. Ranked first in FedEx Cup points list and seventh in earnings with $4,088,637.
Number of top-200 players in win: 30 at Tour Championship
Seasonal head-to-head record against all peers: 1,986 wins, 813 losses and 123 ties for a winning percentage of .701, the 16th-best mark on tour.
Good stuff they omitted: Haas has won thrice and lost in two playoffs over the past two seasons.
Bad stuff they omitted: He was clearly nominated because he won the mega-hyped FedEx finale, against the smallest field of the year, while two-time winners Stricker, Bubba Watson and Mark Wilson were left off the ballot.
Verdict: Hard to envision he’ll get many, if any, votes. Just doesn’t match up compared to what the other nominees accomplished.
Webb Simpson
Tour bio on ballot: Entered 26 events, featuring victories at the Wyndham and Deutsche Bank championships. Had 12 top-10 finishes, including playoff losses at Zurich and McGladrey classics. Ranked second in FedEx points and second in earnings with $6,347,353.
Number of top-200 players in wins: 54 at Wyndham, 94 at Deutsche Bank.
Seasonal head-to-head record against all peers: 2,674 wins, 614 losses and 80 ties for a winning percentage of .806, the fourth-best mark on the tour.
Good stuff they omitted: With his two wins and two playoff losses, he actually posted the lowest score of the week four times this season. Bad stuff they omitted:Would not have won the Deutsche event if Chez Reavie hadn’t bungled the 72nd hole with a wedge in his hand.
Verdict: He moved up more than 200 spots this season in the world rankings and was clearly the season’s breakout player, but his numbers don’t match up to Donald.
Nick Watney
Tour bio on ballot: Entered 23 events, featuring victories at the Cadillac Championship and ATT National. Had a total of 10 top-10 finishes. Ranked ninth in FedEx Cup points and third on the money list with $5,290,673.
Number of top-200 players in wins: 64 at Cadillac Championship at Doral, 67 at ATT National.
Seasonal head-to-head record against all peers: 1,939 wins, 570 losses and 71 ties for a winning percentage of .765, the eighth-best mark of the season.
Good stuff they omitted: Finished ninth or better in his first five starts, and had top-10s in 10 of 22 starts.
Bad stuff they omitted: Missed the cut at two majors and didn’t contend at any of the four.
Verdict: At age 30, he seems to be gaining moxie and entering his prime, but on this ballot, he’s fourth on a list of five names.