Neil Munro
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Neil Munro /
24 August 2011 /
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Fallen Idol (pink) wins at Sandown earlier this year

“Handicaps and Listed events are the ones to back Fallen Idol in. When you do, however, try to back him at double his BSP in the run, and a couple of speculators as he has traded at [55.0] when going off BSP of [5.8].”

Neil Munro marks your card with a bespoke betting plan for a pair of horses

As I have explained many times before there are many angles to trading In-Play but I tend to go on consistency. A horse has to have shown the running style that I want to trade on a number of times before I get too heavily involved. That does mean that I miss out occasionally on unexposed types, but I think that, overall, it keeps money in my pocket or wallet as Betfair calls it.

And so often my trading revolves around horses that are up with the pace but I like to try and find some little gems that can strike gold if you get them right. And these are the horses that get held-up, outpaced, or are slowly away and thus trade bigger in the run but still have a fairly healthy win ratio. I don’t ask for much do I??!!

Fallen Idol
John Gosden’s four-year-old colt was always likely to enjoy the ground with cut in recently at Sandown, being by Pivotal, but he also had a number of other factors in his favour. Fallen Idol had already shown a liking for the Esher track, would have relished the drop down in class, and got the race pace that he likes to come off of. The trip was the main question mark, allied to the fact that the horse hadn’t proved that he had trained on at four.
But John Gosden doesn’t hold on to horses he does not believe have talent. So Fallen Idol came back to form and now means that he has won four of eight starts, and three of the four defeats have come when tried in Group company.
Maybe then handicaps and Listed events are the ones to back him in. When you do, however, try to back him at double his BSP in the run, and a couple of speculators as he has traded at [55.0] when going off BSP of [5.8].

Flynn’s Boy
Rae Guest’s 3yo gelding only had one run at two, but had an early start to his three year old career in February and has been on the go since, although not over-raced. He has a cracking record over seven furlongs on good ground or faster, or the All-Weather with three wins and a place from five races.
It was surprising then to see the chestnut being run over six furlongs for the first time since his debut run, especially out of the handicap as well. But he has been dropped two pounds for that so if connections go back to seven then back him in the run. He gets outpaced early doors over seven – hence why the drop to six? – but comes late and has traded double the BSP for all three wins, including a trade of [130.0] in-running.
One other trade to have on Flynn’s Boy, which wasn’t the case for Fallen Idol, is that when he is delivered late he tends to trade short in the run so once you are matched with the back bet I would look to lay out the stake, if not more at 25% of the BSP. I hope that doesn’t confuse things too much!

Keep lucky.

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