After a whirlwind of activity last year, this spring’s real estate market promises to be a lower-key affair. With lingering job insecurity and a long-delayed recovery in the labor market, economic headwinds are expected to buffet the home sales environment.

“It still is a buyer’s market because we still have considerable supply of properties,” said Marcia Solberg, president of the Plymouth and South Shore Realtor Association.

If there is one bright spot, Plymouth County homes sales were stronger than sales in Norfolk County or the Greater Boston area. Additionally, at least one real estate agent said he has seen strength in the market for homes priced under $300,000.

Last year’s first-time home buyer tax credit gave $8,000 to most buyers who had a purchase-and-sale agreement in hand by April 30. The federal incentive helped boost sales activity throughout the first half of 2010.

Along with reinvigorating the entry-level market, the tax credit was expected to stimulate activity throughout the market as sellers traded up to higher-priced homes. That largely hasn’t occurred, said Solberg, a sales associate at Macdonald Wood Sotheby’s International Realty in Duxbury.

“It was a good idea and good for the consumer, but it didn’t really stimulate the housing market as much as one might have hoped,” Solberg said. “What we’re feeling is what the tax credit did was accelerate sales. When all is settled, it probably didn’t increase sales by that much.”

Elaine Shea, manager of Crescent Realty Group in Hanover, agreed that she’s seen little trade-up activity. After the steep price declines in 2007 and 2008, many recent buyers have negative equity in their homes.

“There are still people who are able to move up if they bought 10 or 12 years ago,” Shea said. “But those who bought six or seven years ago have had to take their homes off the market because they can’t get back that investment.”

Massachusetts home prices have declined moderately over the past year. The median single-family sales price in January was 270,000, down 6.9 percent from $290,000 in January 2010, according to The Warren Group of South Boston. Median sale prices statewide have lingered below $300,000 for five straight months.

Mixed data about sales activity early in 2011 leaves an uncertain outlook for the spring market.

January’s 2,190 single-family sales were the busiest total for that month in Massachusetts since January 2007. But in February, single-family transactions declined 17.6 percent from the same month in the previous year.

The condo market has shown consistent weakness recently, with sales declining on a year-over-year basis for 10 straight months. The state’s median sales price in January was $245,000, a 4.6-percent decrease from the previous year.

Inventories of unsold properties have risen for 11 straight months in Massachusetts, in another sign of a shift in favor of buyers’ bargaining positions.

As of Jan. 31, single-family listings were up 4 percent from January 2010 to nearly 23,600 statewide. Condo listings have declined 5 percent over the same period.

Ryan Glass, an agent for Century 21 Marella Realty in Braintree, said the $300,000-and-under market remains the strongest segment of the local housing industry. After a pair of recent open houses, he received two offers on a Holbrook home listed at $299,000.

“I don’t think the buyers feel as much of a trigger or a push as there was last year,” Glass said. “It comes down to price.”

On the national level, sales of existing homes hit a three-month low in February, declining 4.7 percent. That followed a strong January in which sales rose to the highest level in eight months, driven partly by sales of distressed properties.

“The picture that emerges is a housing market that’s generally on a positive trend, but it’s still pretty choppy,” said Paul Bishop, vice president of research for the Washington-based National Association of Realtors.

One other new consideration for potential buyers is the political debate swirling around the future of a major perk of home ownership – the federal mortgage interest tax deduction.

The IRS allows taxpayers to deduct the interest they pay on their mortgages from their income each year. The deduction cost the federal government approximately $79 billion in taxes in 2010, according to the Office of Management and Budget.

Deficit reduction discussions have identified the nearly century-old deduction, with proponents arguing the government shouldn’t subsidize home ownership and that wealthy and middle-class taxpayers are the primary beneficiaries.

The National Association of Realtors and other members of the housing industry have vowed to fight to retain the financial perk. Ninety-one percent of homeowners claiming the deduction earn less than $200,000 a year, according to the NAR.

Steve Adams may be reached at sadams@ledger.com.