The Irish Independent reports that the way was cleared for a likely four-week election campaign yesterday
after a deal was reached on passing the law to push through the Budget.

The Dail is expected to be dissolved next Tuesday with a likely election
day on Friday, February 25.

But senior Fianna Fail figures favour an election a week later in the
first week of March, to give any new leader more time to bed in after
weeks of internal turmoil.

However, given the Government’s lack of a majority in the Dail, it
would require some major manoeuvring to get it beyond the accepted date.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen will come under pressure to name the date as
the Dail sits today for the first time since the collapse of the
Government.

Former Foreign Affairs Minister Micheal Martin’s grip on the Fianna
Fail leadership appeared to tighten after another three party figures
backed him.

With nominations now closed, Mr Martin is being chased by Finance
Minister Brian Lenihan, Social Welfare Minister Eamon O Cuiv and Tourism
Minister Mary Hanafin.

However, a majority of party TDs have yet to publicly declare their
support and those that have are being intensely lobbied to switch their
allegiances.

Mr Lenihan was forced to admit last night that the Finance Bill could
be passed by the end of the week — after previously declaring it would
be a “logistical impossibility”.

It clears the way for the Dail to be dissolved early next week and a
date set for the General Election, with February 25 considered the most
likely polling day.

This would be two weeks earlier than the date of Friday, March 11,
announced by Mr Cowen last week.

The special Dail sittings this week will be devoted entirely to the
Finance Bill — with none of the usual routines such as Leader’s
Questions.

A senior Fianna Fail figure told the Irish Independent the party
would prefer a longer campaign. “What’s the big deal. We need more time.
There’s no point pretending we don’t. I think people get very frenetic
when it gets so close to the date. You have to stand back and say it
isn’t that much of a difference,” the source said.

After a cross-party meeting at the Department of Finance yesterday,
it emerged Mr Lenihan had dropped his previous insistence that it would
be a “logistical impossibility” to pass the Finance Bill this week.

He said he would have preferred to have a fortnight to pass the bill
— but was glad that agreement had been reached to complete it by
Saturday.

“Of course, the Taoiseach is aware of the timetable for the Finance
Bill and he’s in agreement with it,” he said.

Confidence

Fine Gael finance spokesman Michael Noonan said the motion of no
confidence in the Government tabled by the opposition gave a lever to
make sure an agreement was reached.

Fine Gael and Labour are reserving the right to vote against sections
of the Finance Bill, but the Government will be able to get it through
by Saturday with the support of the Green Party and Independents Jackie
Healy-Rae and Michael Lowry.

Mr Noonan said his party would put down a motion of no confidence in
Mr Cowen if he did not dissolve the Dail by next Tuesday.

But he indicated that the opposition did not “push too hard” for a
definitive election date because it was Mr Cowen’s constitutional right
to name it.

However, Labour finance spokeswoman Joan Burton said she believed
that Friday, February 25, was the likely election date.

Meanwhile, last night two more Fianna Fail TDs announced their
retirements, bringing the total number of departures from the party to
16.

Noel Ahern joined his brother, former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, by
dropping out at his selection convention in Dublin North-West.

And firebrand Cork East TD Ned O’Keeffe also surprising retired and
was immediately replaced on the party ticket by his son, Kevin O’Keeffe.

The Irish Independent also reports that AIB looks set for an ignominious end to its 44-year term on the main
Dublin stock exchange, after the bank touched new lows during its
second-last session on the Iseq.

Today marks the almost-nationalised bank’s last session on the main
Iseq, with the listing shifting to the junior Enterprise Securities
Market (ESM) from tomorrow.

The ESM has lower reporting requirements than the Iseq, but AIB last
night said it would “absolutely” continue to engage extensively with
shareholders.

A survey by the Irish Independent found that more than 10 investment
houses across the UK and Ireland will continue to cover AIB, despite the
“unusual” circumstances of an ESM listing.

Switch

The switch to the ESM was triggered on December 23, when the
Government effectively took a 92pc stake in AIB. Listings on the New
York and London stock exchanges will also be cancelled tonight.

AIB’s shares touched a new low of 23.5c yesterday morning, some 40pc
below their open on December 23 when the latest bailout plan was
announced.

The 23.5c is also more than 38pc below the 37.93c a share ascribed to
the Government’s latest bailout in December. The shares recovered later
in the day to close at 26.3c, down 1.5pc on the day.

Market sources said yesterday’s falls were likely to have included a
“technical” element, reflecting the fact that some investment funds
aren’t allowed to hold shares in companies that aren’t listed on main
indices.

Others cited concern about the volatile political situation in
Ireland, pointing to falls in Bank of Ireland, which closed down 1.7pc,
and Irish Life Permanent (down 1.9pc).

When Anglo Irish Bank was nationalised and removed from the Iseq, it
stopped holding regular results briefings with analysts and dramatically
scaled back the level of financial information it disclosed. AIB’s head
of corporate services Alan Kelly yesterday said his bank had no plans to
materially change its engagement with investors.

“Our intention is to be clear and transparent, we expect to continue
to be active with all our shareholders,” he said, adding that there were
no plans to scale back AIB’s investor relations team of three.

In Ireland, analysts at Goodbody’s, Davy’s, NCB and Dolmen last night
confirmed they would continue covering AIB after its move to the ESM.
The position of Bloxhams is unclear.

Across the water, analysts at several major UK stockbroking houses
confirmed they would continue to cover AIB, some had not yet decided,
and two will no longer cover it.

“I’d imagine we’ll continue covering it unless there’s full-blown
nationalisation,” said one analyst.

“We get asked about the Irish banks a lot, and what we learn from AIB
about asset quality has knock-ons for UK banks because they have Irish
assets too.”

Others pointed to enduring international interest in AIB and Ireland
as a forerunner for possible developments in Spain and Portugal.

“As a big house we usually only cover stocks listed on major
exchanges so this is an unusual situation, but people really want to see
if things are improving in Ireland,” said one analyst.

Analysts also expect continued demand for information from those who
hold billions of euro of AIB debt.

One analyst said he would no longer cover AIB because there’s
“nothing left”, while another said she had stopped covering the bank in
October and did not expect to resume.

The Irish Times reports that the German chancellor is meeting the president of the European
Commission for key talks in Berlin this evening as the EU
executive presses for tougher measures to tackle the sovereign
debt crisis.

Dr Angela Merkel and José Manuel Barroso will
discuss a package of measures including a partial restructuring
of the debt of distressed countries such as Greece, a scheme
which could ultimately be deployed to ease some of Ireland’s
debt burden.

Sources say a restructuring of Irish debt in this context has
not been discussed. However, the rules of the European Financial
Stability Facility (EFSF), which is the euro zone rescue fund,
are written in a way that means the same provisions apply to all
participants.

Measures that would cut the interest rate on Ireland’s
bailout loans are also on the table as the two leaders meet. A
further possibility is that the euro zone rescue fund is
empowered to help bailout recipients to recapitalise struggling
banks.

EU economics commissioner Olli Rehn will make the case for
EFSF reforms at a separate meeting today with Dr Merkel’s
liberal Free Democrat coalition partners. Their leader Guido
Westerwelle has warned in recent weeks that Berlin’s solidarity
towards its European partners is conditional and must be earned.

Sources briefed on the debt restructuring proposal argued
that its “debt reduction impact” has been “overestimated” as
bondholders would not be compelled to participate.

Still, German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is believed
to be well disposed to the notion. In question is whether the
EFSF can be empowered to lend to bailout recipients so they can
buy back some of their debt at a discount.

This idea has been attributed in many quarters to EFSF chief
Klaus Regling. It is now under discussion in Europe’s economic
and financial committee, which groups senior finance ministry
officials from all euro countries with officials from the
European Commission.

With bondholders free to reject any offer to buy back the
paper at a discount, a European official said many of them would
be likely to hold on to their investment as they would have an
incentive to do so.

However, the official made the case that the very existence
of such measures could help to keep a ceiling on bond yields
when they spike upwards in times of crisis. “It can have an
impact on the decisions of other bondholders.”

A further suggestion is that it would be open to the European
Central Bank (ECB) or other euro countries to sell at a discount
euro zone sovereign paper they hold. This may have limited
effect, however, as the EU’s “no-bailout clause” bans the ECB or
national central banks from directly acquiring debt from member
states.

The discussion of such debt buybacks follows concern that
Greece may be unable to make its return to private markets at
the end of its rescue programme in 2013. The objective in
funding a discounted bond buyback would be to ease pressure on
the exchequer in Athens, softening the ground for its return to
private investors.

Dr Merkel’s meeting with Mr Barroso comes as euro group
finance ministers gear up for intensive talks to widen the reach
and mandate of the EFSF. While Mr Barroso has pushed for a
definitive decision by the next EU summit on February 4th, this
received a frosty response from Berlin.

However, the fact that Dr Merkel has not ruled out
far-reaching reforms is significant. EU leaders are more likely
to push for a deal at a summit in late March.

The Irish Times also reports that Greencore is to press ahead with its scheduled agm next Monday
as speculation mounts as to whether the Irish food company will
submit a revised offer to Northern Foods.

Greencore’s share
price fell by more than 5 per cent yesterday. This followed
Northern Foods’ withdrawal of support for the Greencore merger
late on Friday after a rival cash offer was received from
businessman Ranjit Boparan.

Greencore said it was “considering its options” following the
cash offer by BH Acquisitions for Northern Foods. The company,
which is controlled by chilled food magnate Ranjit Boparan,
announced a £342 million (€400 million) bid for Northern Foods
which was endorsed by the board of the merger target.

Greencore’s assertion in its statement that it
“recognises
the importance attached by the Northern Foods board to the
certainty of cash value in their decision to change their
recommendation” sparked speculation that the company may submit
a revised offer which would have a cash component.

Barclays Capital is advising Greencore on the merger.

Mr Boparan has 28 days to send the offer document to Northern
Foods shareholders. From this point, Mr Boparan potentially
could close the deal within 21 days if he achieves 75 per cent
shareholder support.

The timing of any revised offer from Greencore is likely to
take into account the Irish firm’s agm. Northern Foods is also
proceeding with its scheduled egm on Monday, at which
shareholders will vote on the proposed merger with Greencore
which the board of Northern Foods no longer supports.

Northern Foods’ share price climbed to the highest point in
two months since the announcement on Friday, although some
analysts pointed out that it could indicate that the market is
pricing in the possibility of a further bid.

“There is a belief that Greencore could stretch to 30p,”
one
London-based analyst said. “This would mean the offer would
comprise roughly 40 per cent in cash and 60 per cent in Greencore shares.”

In a market update Greencore gave further details on the £40
million cost savings it would make as part of the proposed
merger.

This comprises £15 million in overhead-costs savings, £20
million from purchasing and supply chain improvements, and £5
million through financing and tax efficiencies, the Irish food
company said.

The Irish Examiner reports that sales of Irish whiskey are expected to grow
faster than any of its competitors in overseas spirits markets, according to
projections by global vintners body International Wine Spirit Record.

The report also predicts increased demand for Scotch whisky, but signals
stronger anticipated growth for Irish whiskey. Overall, ISWR predicts volume and
value gains, with the category gaining 100m cases over the next five years.

Cathryn Hargan of Bord Bia’s Consumer Foods Division notes: “Irish whiskey in
particular is forecast to achieve the highest growth rate in the sector. Most of
the growth in both whiskey and whisky is likely to come from the Indian market
as whisk(e)y is a status symbol and its popularity is likely to improve as the
country’s wealth increases.”

Other global markets identified for growth in whiskey are Mexico and France
while Brazil, China and USA are likely to be among the top spirits growth
markets. Canadean also predict growth in the spirits business, driven by a
strong performance in China and India.

Companies wishing to increase the private label segment of their business will
be interested to read that according to global market research company
Euromonitor International’s latest findings, private label offerings in
alcoholic drinks accounted for only 2% of global total volume share in 2010.

“Companies appear to be failing to take advantage of the current economic
slump and unlike other FMCG industries; the drinks sector hasn’t penetrated this
segment to a large extent in markets outside of Western Europe,” says
Cathryn Hargan. “However, as consumers grapple with austerity measures,
private label could see increased opportunities for business in this largely
untapped segment.”

These global reports are largely in line with Bord Bia’s report on the Irish
food sector, Performance Prospects, which projects that Irish beverage exports
in 2011 will outperform even the gains that were made during 2010, with sales of
other beverages making gains along similar lines to whiskey.

Overall, Irish beverage exports are estimated to have increased by 12% in 2010,
rising to €1.19bn overall. The strongest performing categories were whiskey,
cream liqueur and beer. Cider exports improved as the year progressed, with a
strong performance in Britain, combined with increased sales to North America,
Australia and Spain all helping to grow trade.

As Bord Bia chief executive, Aidan Cotter, explains: “Generally, the prospects
for beverage exports remain positive for 2011, with stronger demand likely to be
maintained while emerging markets continue to increase purchases of Irish
beverages.