North San Diego County house sales fell for a fourth consecutive
month in November, pushing down prices, data from a Realtors
association said.

North County house sales and median prices jumped this summer,
as state and federal tax incentives motivated homebuyers to close
deals before subsidies expired. But the early rush left a vacuum
later in the year, and sales have slipped dramatically in recent
months.

However, North County agents said December, normally a sleepy
period in real estate, was unexpectedly busy as potential buyers
hit the pavement looking for deals, and at least one Southwest
Riverside County real estate agent said her office is hopping.

In November, North County house sales fell to 584, down 6.8
percent from last November and 5.1 percent from October, and down a
third from May’s high for the year, according to a report from the
North San Diego County Association of Realtors. Slow sales pushed
the median house price down to $460,000, off 1.1 percent from
October and down 4 percent from a June high, though up 5.4 percent
from November 2009.

“To some extent, the heat at the beginning of the year was
responsible for the cool of the end of the year,” said Chris
Thornberg, an economist with Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. “We
steal sales from the future, but we didn’t gain anything. It (the
tax credit) just moved things.”

Indeed, during the 11 months of 2010 tallied by the association,
sales fell 4 percent compared with the same period in 2009, itself
a slow year.

The association data comes from a listings database managed by
Sandicor Inc., and relies on Realtors to enter listings and
sales.

The drop in sales drove an increase in the housing inventory,
defined as the number of months the market would require to sell
all houses listed for sale. If a Southern California market has
more than six months of inventory, many observers expect prices to
drop. In July, inventory rose to 6.7 months, and in November it hit
7.4 months, a fifth straight month above the magic line.

“There is an inventory of units that causes prices to fall,”
Thornberg said. “Prices have to go down. That’s what will get
people to buy.”

The number of houses for sale has been limited to some extent by
a drop in foreclosed homes on the market stemming from foreclosure
freezes by Bank of America and other lenders. While big lenders
reviewed their procedures, foreclosure sales in North County in
November fell to 0.8 foreclosures per 1,000 households, down 26
percent since last November, and in Southwest Riverside County they
fell 46.6 percent from last November to 2.4 per 1,000
households.

In Southwest Riverside County, at least some real estate agents
had a banner November, and they’re sill busy in December.

“November was the biggest month we had all year,” said Marsha
Swanson, a Wildomar real estate agent. “We’re a little behind that
pace this month; a lot of people are out looking and making some
offers. Even today we had people coming in and looking for a home,
and in the rain and everything.”

Swanson said most of her buyers are locals who can suddenly
afford to buy after years of being priced out of the market. The
median house price in Southwest Riverside county hit $206,000 in
October, according to data from the Riverside County assessor’s
office.

She also said some were scared by the jump in mortgage interest
rates the past two weeks.

“They’re getting worried they might miss their chance,” she
said.

Carlsbad real estate agent Tyson Lund said in an e-mail that the
jump in rates could have “spurred those on the fence to purchase”
in San Diego County.

North County Realtors said they’ve seen more foot traffic and
phone calls in December, a normally sleepy month.

“Looking is full-tilt boogie, but buying is very cautious,” Jim
Klinge, a Carlsbad real estate broker, said in an e-mail. “Sales
would be substantially higher if sellers would get off their
inflated-above-comps asking prices.”

Klinge said buyers were looking for good deals on the best
houses, in a “flight to quality.”

“Buyers keep holding out for the best, and when they see
something close enough, they jump on it,” he said.

Call staff writer Eric Wolff at 760-740-5412.